Here's a handful of patterns and concepts that I've noticed when researching the Level select in Bonk.io. This will talk about maps, trends, chains, and gameplay types in how they grow, diffuse, and fade out.
Note:
Some of the original groundwork for this post was laid out in the Map Categorisation Project article. Also, the majority of these points are applied applications of already well-documented real-world concepts. For these, the Wikipedia article or another introductory resource will be linked if you want to understand how they function within the real world as well.
Point 1) Exponential decay and Map Success
(Applied from Exponential Decay)
For a map to succeed within a Level Select that is partially controlled by the Hot List that favors newer maps, exponential decay plays an important role with a map's long-term success.
After a map is published, if it wants any hope of being successful in the long term, it needs to garner a high amount of votes soon after it is released. Otherwise, it would be buried by a whole slew of other newer maps and be unable to stand out.
The graph above helps illustrate this concept. Right when a map is released, it has the full potential to reach long-term success. However, if it is having an average amount of votes after its publication, its chances of long term success exponentially go down over time.
When making maps and looking at the Hot List, the first few hours seem to be often critical in a map's success. However, I would also say that there are two exceptions with this:
In this case, the map ends up getting a good amount of votes despite it only getting a few in the first few hours. From personal experience, I've personally had a map that gained two votes overnight but was able to get several dozen over the following day.
Since the Picks List doesn't rank maps by their release date, older maps on the HTML5 Bonk.io are able to get a boost in votes when added to it recently, given to increased exposure.
Point 2) The "Expectation Bar"
(Applied from Doubling Time)
With maps already having considerable success, the Hot List continues to weed them out by having the expectation for the map to continue growing. If not, the map will suffer by less exposure.
As a result of this, it can create a feedback loop where the map over time will cap out around a certain amount, only slowly getting new votes. Conversely, if a map performs above this expectation, it will have a positive feedback loop, further promoting it.
The expectation bar is solely determined by the map's placement relative to the other maps. If a particular map is performing above average, it gets more exposure and is moved. If it is performing below average, it gets knocked down and stalls out relative to the other maps. With the maps at the very top of the Top Rated section, the placement of the maps is predominantly due to this factor.
Obviously, players on Bonk.io are not robots and tend to get bored with certain maps. As a result of this, maps can also move around between their positions relative to others.
A popular example would be PvP 3Teams - BLACK Nexus by NexusP1. This map in particular was formerly the most upvoted map in the HTML5 Bonk.io. However, it fell out of favor after the remix Snipers' Spot by not pro gained traction. With this, NexusP1's map ended up stalling just above 10k upvotes over a year ago, only slowly gaining votes today.
Just so you know:
Exponential decay only strongly applies to newer maps; the expectation bar is an expansion of this that is also suitable for viewing maps in the long term.
With the expansion bar, only a very small minority of maps can keep above it in the long-term; the vast majority end up quickly leveling off.
Within Bonk.io, trends are a form of map diffusion within a community in which players create remixes or copies of a certain successful map, either out of interest of the map or the pursuit of stealing fame respectfully.
These maps are trends that tend to change over time, merge, or split from one another. Diagrams of the evolution of trends can be referred to as map chains, such as with the image below.
Point 3) The Two Stages of Map Trends
In general, there tends to be only two stages of a map trend.
Stage 1 ❖ Evolutionary Stage
(Applied from Diffusion of innovations)
The evolutionary stage of a map chain is where the player's attention of a particular map concept is shifting. As a result of this, evolution of the maps occur when players get bored of an older popular map and choose to play a newer innovative remix instead. This is caused by the natural result of innovation occurring when many players are creating remixes and derivatives of other peoples' maps. These new popular remixes also sometimes foster their own innovative remixes themselves, repeating the cycle.
Additionally, with each of the map trends, there tends to be certain fragments of the trend itself that don't get passed onto future works or have remixes of their own. Hence, the red X's pointing away from most parts of each map trend.
Stage 2 ❖ Static Stage
(Applied from Digital ecosystem)
Eventually, all map concepts in the Evolutionary Stage end up in the Static Stage. This is where there is no significant innovation causing most players to gravitate towards a different version of the map. This is often caused by there being many copies relative to remixes of a certain concept.
As a result, there really is nothing new for players to latch onto if the map concept is in the Static Stage. Instead, the copies just remind the player about the origin map of the trend, which creates a positive feedback loop, benefiting both the origin map and the copies.
A great example of this would be with the Gang Grounds 2.0 trend, which had little innovation made by players recreating it. As a result of this, the feedback loop has continued for three years, in large part thanks to the GG2 copy maps from 2019 that remain on the Classic Quick Play.
In other cases, the copy map ends up becoming the base map. Usually, this only occurs when there is a copy of the original map soon after publication. A popular example of this would be with Trollbeeb2's copies of apstp's "Human Slingshot!". This trend ended up as the largest map trend in Bonk.io's history, resulting in 1 to 1.5 million upvotes given to Slingshot related copies. For more information about the history of this trend, refer to the article attached.
Just so you know:
Newer map chains these days tend to spend a lot more time in the Evolutionary Stage as a result of various factors including the greater desire for players to create remixes instead of copies in order to get into the Picks List.
Maps in the Static Stage are at risk of eventually fading out due to lack of interest unlike maps in the Evolutionary Stage.
Maps in the Static Stage are also able to get back into the Evolutionary Stage if a certain remix of the map gains a significant amount of the community's attention away from the original base map.
For the most part, gameplay types are separate from one another. In which, the gameplay types are composed of various intertwined chains that gradually grow upwards. Below is an image of the types of gameplay.
In this, PvP and Race/Parkour Maps are the primary types of gameplay, in which every map in Bonk.io needs to fall into one of the two types to some degree.
From this, there is the offshoot of Weapon Maps imbedded within PvP Maps. Along with this, there are offshoots of Mechanism and Art Maps in both PvP and Race/Parkour Maps. Troll Maps are a little bit different as they don't have a consistent structure or trends around them. Instead, these are found sporadically within all map types.
Point 4) The "Tree of Bonk.io Maps"
(Subject unique to Bonk.io, loosely applied from Phylogenetic tree)
Within Bonk.io, gameplay types are a term referred to maps by categorising them into a certain broad group of maps relating to their individual qualities.
In this metaphorical tree, the trunk includes all of the maps in Bonk.io, where each of the branches are a certain gameplay type, in which established map chains compose it. Moving towards the twigs and leaves, these are the more recent variations of various map trends where the leaves are the newly published maps.
Just so you know:
Each of the branches of the tree are composed of many map chains that are intertwined, merge, and separate. The relationship between map chains and map types is similar to the vessels that carry water up a tree.
The image also accounted for the overlap between some PvP and Race/Parkour maps along with the overlap between some Art and Mech related maps.
The image above excludes Troll Maps due to their sporadic and loosely defined nature.